Francis Ngannou defends the heavyweight belt as an underdog to Ciryl Gane

UFC 270 is set to take place this Saturday at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The main event will feature Francis Ngannou, widely considered the most dangerous fighter in MMA, defending his heavyweight belt vs interim-title holder, Ciryl Gane.

It likely comes as a shock to most casual MMA fans that Francis Ngannou will go into his first title defense as an underdog with most sportsbooks offering odds of around +125 on Ngannou to win.  This means a $100 bet would win $125 (total payout of $225) if Ngannou keeps his belt. Ciryl Gane, the undefeated fighter with a Muay Thai background is the favourite with odds of around -145 (depending which sportsbook you’re looking at). If you’re interested in betting on the fight, check out this page to learn how to bet on the UFC from Canada.

Francis Ngannou defeated Stipe Miocic via second round TKO to become the UFC heavyweight champion last March. This was Ngannou’s second crack at Miocic, with Ngannou losing via decision in his first title try back in 2018. Prior to that original fight, Ngannou had won his first 6 UFC fights by first or second round finish. After the first Miocic loss, Ngannou had a lackluster performance, losing an uneventful decision to Derrick Lewis, which saw his stock drop. After that loss a rejuvenated Ngannou finished four straight top heavyweight contenders (Blaydes, Velasquez, dos Santos, Rozenstruik) by first round knockouts in a total of 162 seconds across all four fights. These wins finally granted him his second shot at Miocic, where he made no mistake.

Ciryl Gane is 10-0 in his MMA career (7-0) in the UFC. Prior to entering MMA in 2018, Gane was an undefeated Muay Thai fighter (13-0) dating back to 2014). Gane defeated dos Santos, Rozenstruik, Volkov and Derrick Lewis in his last four UFC fights to win the interim belt and earn this title shot vs Francis Ngannou.

Ngannou has the power to knockout any elite heavyweight with one strike. He’s proven he’s the most dangerous fighter in the UFC by each of his 11 wins in the UFC coming via finish (and only two of those fights advancing past the first round). That said, there are still questions surrounding his ability to go deep if he can’t secure the early knockout.  Many critics believe that Gane has the striking ability and intelligence to avoid the knockout blow and use his Muay Thai striking to connect with his own shots and lengthen the fight.

I’m personally surprised that Francis Ngannou is not the favourite in the fight this weekend. He’s done everything he can over the past five fights to prove he’s the best heavyweight in the world. It’s not the first time Ngannou has been overlooked though, with him closing as the underdog in both the Curtis Blaydes and Cain Velasquez fights following his two fight losing streak. He ended up winning both of those fights via knockout in a total of 71 seconds.

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