98th Oscars Forecast: The Films and Performances Poised to Win Big

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony takes place on Sunday, March 15, in Hollywood. This year, the film industry’s most prestigious awards may be one of the toughest in recent memory to predict . . . but here goes.

Best Picture

Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

This race has been about two films since day one: Sinner and One Battle After Another. While I would love to see Sinners win, I don’t think it will happen. All the momentum is behind One Battle After Another. Both are great films, but I expect One Battle to take it.

Who will win: One Battle After Another
Who I want to win: Sinners

Actor in a Leading Role

Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Ehtan Hawke – Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

If we had this conversation after the nominees were announced, I would have picked Chalamet, but not now. Michael B. Jordan’s stock is growing substantially.

Who will win: Michael B. Jordan
Who I want to win: Michael B. Jordan

Actor in a Supporting Role

Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value

These were some great performances this year, but Stellan Skarsgard has always stood out. I would like to think that the abuse Delroy Lindo endured at the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA’s) and his career work would be enough to move the Academy, but I don’t think it will.

Who will win: Stellan Skarsgard
Who I want to win: Delroy Lindo

Actress in a Leading Role

Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne  – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia

There are some great performances in this category, including Goldie Hawn’s daughter, but at the end of the day, the best performance of the year came from Jessie Buckley. This is the most guaranteed award of the night.

Who will win: Jessie Buckley
Who I want to win: Jessie Buckley

Actress in a Supporting Role

Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas – Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

This is a solid category. I would have loved to have seen Weapons nominated for Best Picture, but since I didn’t get that wish, I will take their lone nominee: Aunt Gladys. She was a memorable character, and Amy Madigan deserves to take the stage.

Who will win: Amy Madigan
Who I want to win: Amy Madigan

Directing

Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler – Sinners

All the momentum this year is with Paul Thomas Anderson (P.T.A.). While the Directors Guild winner doesn’t always go on to win the Oscar, I think he will here. Chloe Zhao and Ryan Coogler both directed incredible movies, but it’s P.T.A. who will take the prize.

Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who I want to win: Ryan Coogler

International Feature Film

The Secret Agent – Brazil
It Was Just an Accident – France
Sentimental Value – Norway
Sirat – Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab – Tunisia

I had the privilege of seeing four of these nominated movies on the first day of the Toronto International Film Festival. It was a glorious day of cinema.

It Was Just an Accident was brilliant, but while France made it, it’s about Iran. As impressive as it is, it won’t win. With that movie out of the running, I am putting my chips behind Sentimental Value.

Who will win: Sentimental Value
Who I want to win: Sentimental Value

International Feature Film

Animated Feature Film: KPop Demon Hunters

Animated Short Film: Butterfly

Casting: Sinners

Cinematography: One Battle After Another

Costume Design: Sinners

Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor

Documentary Short Film: The Devil is Busy

Film Editing: One Battle After Another

Live Action Short Film: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein

Music (Original Score): Sinners

Music (Original Song): Golden from KPop Demon Hunters

Production Design: Frankenstein

Sound: F1

Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): One Battle After Another

Writing (Original Screenplay): Sinners