Seems like every other week another one of these NHL ‘playoff odds’ sites pop up, but the one the majority of buyers-in buy in to is MoneyPuck.com.
So, we’ll stick with that for a bit of fun, and a bit of analysis of the analysis.
As it stood at 5:42 AM ET on this Friday morning (obviously taking into account Thursday night’s games), your Ottawa Senators held a 45.7 per cent chance of making the playoffs; a 23.3 per cent chance of making it to Round 2; a 13.1 per cent chance of jumping up to the third round; a 7.2 per cent chance of entering the final; and a four per cent chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
MoneyPuck.com uses several components to build its model. Among them are ‘ability to win,’ ‘goaltending,’ ‘scoring chances,’ and ‘home-away and rest.’
There are more in-depth explanations on how the group gets to its numbers, but we don’t want to bore you with over-analysis (if you’re so inclined, just head to moneypuck.com/about.htm for more juicy tidbits).
The numbers and calculation processes are all well and good, but in a day and age where analytics have taken over entire thought manufacturing as far as hockey is concerned, we here at the home office prefer a good dash of eye-test and common sense.
And one thing we’ve learned (and certainly seen) in the Atlantic Division and the entire Eastern Conference this season is that unpredictability is the mother ship. And that, mon grand chum, calculates into a whole lot of who-knows.
Those who-knows are almost impossible to calculate.
Who knew Ottawa would get goaltended out of numerous points during the campaign? Who knew Brady Tkachuk would play in an almost deferential manner for the bulk of the year (yes, he did show rare fire Thursday against the Islanders, and yes, he dealt with a significant thumb malfunction through much of the year . . . but still)? Who knew last season’s find, Nick Jensen, couldn’t find his game for an entire season?
Conversely, who knew the Senators would morph from defensive time-bomb into one of the league’s more soundly structured squads? Who knew the team could get soundly embarrassed 8-2 by Stanley Cup favourites Colorado one day then three weeks later respond with a 5-2 whipping of its own?
Hard to predict, eh?
As far as the rest of the fractious Eastern Conference, as much as you sad case Schadenfreude-ists must relish this, did anyone really see those annual regular-season champs in Toronto tumble from grace in such a manner? The team that coasted to an Atlantic title in 2024-25 with a whopping 108 points is now in danger of freefalling to the biggest point-plummet in league history. Actually, you can add the Washington Capitals to the who-knew list. The Caps took the entire conference standings last season, however this year they are targeted for a playoff swing and miss.
Pre-season pundits also missed out on a few other clubs in the wild, wild east.
Columbus?
No chance. (Until Rick Bowness shows up and waives his magic wand).
Buffalo?
Come on, get real . . . it’s Buffalo for gawd’s sake. (And hello, growth spurt).
Boston?
Clearly on the way down. The days of Marchand and Chara and Bergeron are long gone. (And welcome to a nasty, nippy and quick re-tool).
Les Canadiens?
Far too soon, too young and too timid. (And here comes another rapid growth spurt).
Pittsburgh’s Penguins?
Far too much to consider and far too old to compete. (Cue the resurgence).
In fact, the number of sure bets in the east far out-numbered the amount of questionables. (Tampa, Carolina and Philadelphia are about the only ones around just where we thought they’d be).
And now it’s on to the final 14 or 15 games of the regular schedule.
Get out your simulators.
Chances are – and the odds are good – the calculations will miss the mark.
SENATORS WEEK AHEAD:
Saturday, March 21: Toronto at Ottawa (7 pm)
Monday, March 23: Ottawa at NY Rangers (7:30 pm)
Tuesday, March 24: Ottawa at Detroit (7 pm)
Thursday, March 26: Pittsburgh at Ottawa (7 pm)
thegrossgame@yahoo.com
