Canada is approaching one of the most consequential economic decisions in a generation.
Over the next few months, our government will face difficult negotiations with the United States over the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), tariffs, and the broader economic relationship that has underpinned Canadian prosperity for decades.
Some argue that Canada should simply “rag the puck”—delay serious negotiations, hope that American politics changes after the midterm elections, or wait until Donald Trump eventually leaves office.
I believe that would be a mistake.
The forces reshaping the North American and global economies are much larger than any one president. Trade is no longer driven solely by comparative advantage and lower tariffs. It is increasingly shaped by national security, resilient supply chains, critical technologies, artificial intelligence, digital sovereignty, and geopolitical competition.
Whether Donald Trump remains in office or not, Canada faces the same fundamental challenge.
We need a strategy.
As host of The Brian Crombie Hour, I have the privilege of interviewing leading thinkers from across Canada every week. In recent months alone, I’ve spoken with former diplomat Colin Robertson, geopolitical strategist Jeff Mahon, energy expert Heather Exner-Pirot, Alberta businessman George Vandenberg, housing experts Ron Butler and Professor Murtaza Haider, former Toronto councillor Karen Stintz, and municipal leaders from Toronto, Edmonton, Mississauga, Niagara-on-the-Lake, and elsewhere.
Those conversations have reinforced what I have also learned during more than forty years in business, finance, and real estate, and through my regular travels across Canada and the United States. My work takes me frequently to Texas, Florida, Kansas, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia, and across Quebec and Ontario. The challenges may differ from region to region, but the underlying themes are remarkably consistent.
Canada’s problems are interconnected. And so are the solutions.
Jeff Mahon recently described the emerging global economy as requiring “variable geometry in a world of multiplex markets.”
It may not be the catchiest phrase ever coined, but the underlying idea is exactly right.
Canada should stop searching for one grand economic strategy. Instead, we need several.
Our manufacturing sector depends on an integrated North American economy. Industries such as automobiles, aerospace, steel, and advanced manufacturing rely on continental supply chains that have taken decades to build. Maintaining competitive access to the American market remains essential.
Natural resources present a different opportunity. Energy, agriculture, forestry, and many mineral resources can compete globally if Canada builds the infrastructure necessary to reach world markets.
Critical minerals deserve their own strategy. Canada should not repeat the mistake we made for generations with oil, gas, and other commodities by exporting raw materials while allowing others to capture most of the value through processing and manufacturing. We should be building refineries, processing facilities, battery supply chains, and advanced manufacturing here at home.
Digital technology requires yet another approach. Artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, cloud computing, quantum technology, and data infrastructure have become strategic assets. Canada needs to encourage innovation while preserving sufficient digital sovereignty to protect our long-term national interests.
Different sectors require different strategies.
That sounds obvious. Yet for years we’ve often tried to solve every economic challenge with one broad policy.
The immediate question, however, is what Canada should do about the United States.
My answer is equally straightforward. We should negotiate. Not because negotiation is weakness. Because negotiation is leadership.
Early in my career, I had the privilege of working for Jim Pattison, one of Canada’s most successful entrepreneurs. Watching him negotiate taught me lessons that apply as much to countries as they do to businesses.
Jim rarely conducted the detailed negotiations himself. He would send one of his senior executives—often me—to work through the issues with the other side. That approach allowed both parties to explore options freely, without either principal feeling pressured to accept a premature agreement. If necessary, we could always say, “I need to discuss this with Jimmy.”
He also believed you never truly knew how good a deal was until you were prepared to walk away from the table at least once. Walking away wasn’t theatre or brinkmanship—it was recognizing that a bad agreement is often worse than no agreement at all.
Negotiate seriously. Negotiate firmly. But if the deal isn’t in your long‑term interest, have the discipline to leave the table and let the other side reconsider.
Jim’s final lesson may have been the most important: in the end, people do business with people.
Once the detailed negotiations had narrowed the issues, he would meet personally with the principal on the other side. By then, the discussion wasn’t about technical details—it was about trust, relationships, and finding common ground.
Canada should approach Washington the same way. We should negotiate seriously and hard, protect our national interests, and never accept a bad agreement simply for the sake of reaching one. But neither should we refuse to engage.
Ultimately, any lasting agreement will depend on Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump sitting down together to determine whether they can build enough trust to reach common ground.
At the same time, Canada cannot allow the current negotiations to distract us from the larger challenge. Our productivity has stalled. Housing has become increasingly unaffordable. Major infrastructure projects take too long to approve and too long to build. Investment is flowing elsewhere.
Too often, we have become a country that says no—no to pipelines, mines, transmission lines, ports, housing, airports, nuclear power, and major infrastructure. Then we wonder why investment leaves and why our young people increasingly question whether they can build their futures here.
Prosperity is not automatic. It must be built.
Heather Exner‑Pirot has shown how Indigenous partnerships can unlock nation‑building infrastructure. George Vandenberg has argued that Canada exports too much opportunity instead of creating wealth at home. Ron Butler and Professor Murtaza Haider have warned that housing affordability is becoming an existential economic challenge. Karen Stintz has reminded us that complacency is one of our greatest risks. Colin Robertson has argued that Canada must understand America as it is—not as we wish it to be—and pursue our own long‑term interests accordingly.
Taken together, those conversations point toward a single conclusion: Canada has extraordinary advantages. We have abundant natural resources, world‑class universities, talented entrepreneurs, stable democratic institutions, a highly educated workforce, strong immigration, and privileged access to North America, Europe, and the Indo‑Pacific.
Few countries begin with the hand we’ve been dealt. Our challenge is not one of potential—it’s one of execution.
The conversation Canada needs is no longer whether change is necessary. The evidence is overwhelming. The real question is which choices will make us more productive, more competitive, more innovative, and more prosperous.
This should not be a debate about left versus right, or Ottawa versus the provinces, or business versus labour. It should be a national conversation about how to build the country our children and grandchildren deserve to inherit.
Canada has faced defining moments before. This feels like another one.
The negotiations now underway may determine our economic relationship with the United States for years to come. The investments we choose to make—or fail to make—in infrastructure, housing, critical minerals, digital technology, and productivity will shape our economy for decades.
We cannot control every decision made in Washington. But we can control the decisions we make here at home.
That is Canada’s real moment of choice. The time to make it is now.
